After more than 13 years, the Al Assad regime has finally fallen. The reasons are multiple, but the key is that two major situations have rendered his support to fail – Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the Hamas-Israel war.
The Ukraine war has drained resources from Russia after more than two years of fighting a full-scale classic war. Syria has been used by Moscow as both a spot in the Middle East from where to continue its influence campaign throughout the region and a prime geographic place from where to manage its operations in Africa, while also having Latakia and Tartus as military power projection ramps in the Eastern Mediterranean Sea. The said resources were not necessarily vital from a material point of view, but rather viewed as important for manpower reasons. The rate of Russian losses in Ukraine has slimmed down the available and committable resources needed to maintain their grip over the situation in Syria and Africa in general.
The Hamas-Israel war and, of course, the Hezbollah-Israel war have also made the situation untenable for Iran in the Middle East and while it does retain enough influence in the region and manpower, the utter destruction of these two factions have limited their possibility for action considerably. Israel has close to dismantled Hezbollah in Lebanon, while in Syria it has struck the IRGC operatives and command centers incessantly.
These two major events have created the conditions for another major important decision-maker and actor which was already operating in the region and was part of the discussions throughout the past decade – Turkiye. It wasn’t the SDF or the FSA that ultimately pushed the Al Assad forces out and toppled the regime and made Bashar al Assad flee for Moscow, but the Turkish-backed Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham, or HTS, led by Abu Mohammed al-Jolani.
The HTS is indeed the inheritor of Jabhat al-Nusra Front, the Al Qaeda organization for Syria, formed back in 2011 when the Syrian civil war started and is not the prime organization that is taking over Syria. Designated by the State Department of the United States as a foreign terrorist organization and accused of various war crimes throughout the years, the way that this faction has advanced in the early days of December indicates that this was well known by the actors in the region and seems to be that while it may be that both Russia and Iran oppose the outcome, they could and can do little about it.
Another development did occur after the fall of Bashar al-Assad, with Israel conducting one of its largest air operations in recent times in Syria which has almost completely destroyed the Syrian air force and navy, military sites and other strategic objectives, leaving very little for the HTS to take over from the ousted dictator. The concerning part of the recent weeks was not that though, but the Israeli extension of the occupied Syrian lands in the south of Syria.
The occupation includes Mount Hermon which is only 40 kilometers from Damascus and is a great strategic overview of the Syrian capital, prime for long-range artillery placement. Another important part of the occupation is that the area covers some of Syria’s druze minority villages and to this extent, many videos surfaced with druze leaders asking for the incorporation into Israel proper.
It is unknown at this point if Israel will continue such an action but it has announced that it has approved the plan to increase the population in the Golan Heights, wish some estimating that the plan would double it, which can be seen as an action meant to keep the freshly occupied Syrian territory. In this instance, the international community will most likely condemn such an action as illegal. Another unknown from this point is what the position of the new leader of Syria is, if they will accept this new status quo, or will they contest it and, if so, through which means? In this case, while Isreal commands an impressive air force, more than capable of contesting Damascus, the occupation of Mount Hermon consolidates its grip over the strategic overview of Syria.
While these are early days for the new Syrian opposition that has taken over the country, there are signs that the West intends to normalize their relations and are willing to work with al-Jolani and his HTS and some fears of Islamic fundamentalism seem that have dissipated, as much as they can considering the short time period that has passed from the ousting of al-Assad to the present.