On the 27th of November the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon came into effect following a brokered deal by the United States and France between the parties. This is a temporary one even though the US administration is adamant for the creation of a more permanent deal between them. According to sources which cite from the deal, 10.000 soldiers from the Lebanon Armed Forces will deploy to southern Lebanon as soon as possible, while also reporting that civilians will continue to be kept at bay in the first phase.

The deal will create the context for the IDF to focus more on the operations in Gaza, even though there were hopes that this agreement would somehow pave the way for at least a respite in the fighting which is has been taking place in the Strip for more than a year. This is not the case in our opinion.

Following resounding successes registered by the IDF in its land and air campaign in Lebanon and an almost complete destructuring of the Hezbollah leadership by the intelligence services’ operations earlier this year, the political conditions had been set for such an agreement, with sufficient gains into Israel’s military achievements and objectives so as to sell this as a victory to the public inside of the country.

The mid and high tier leadership of Hezbollah has been thoroughly eliminated according to many experts, with its longstanding ruler, Hassan Nasrallah, also being taken out, multiple positions, capabilities and weapons being destructured and confiscated, there is sufficient reason to keep this deal at this moment.

While it is unclear at the moment if this deal will hold, since this is also the cause of dissent by various hardliners inside Israel, the other provisions of the deal are sufficient for the country so as to resume its operations into Lebanon if it has grounds for self defence, according to the international law.

According to the latest UNRWA report for Lebanon from the 18th of November, more than 850.000 IDPs have been registered since the start of the hostilities between Hezbollah and Israel. In another report for Syria, citing another UN agency, UNHCR, more than 550.000 people from Lebanon have taken refuge in Syria.

In any case, peace might be achieved, even a temporary one, for both southern Lebanon and northern Israel. The political situation is instead a precarious one, with an arrest warrant issued by the ICC for both Benjamin Netanyahu and the former Defense Minister, Yoav Gallant, for supposed war crimes. We suspect that his actions would only make the standing Prime minister double down on Gaza, with a cessation of the conflict being unlikely at this moment, due to little incentive for him to step down.

According to multiple humanitarian agencies, the situation in Gaza continues to deteriorate, especially in North Gaza where fighting continues to be the hardest. The perspectives for a ceasefire in the Strip are also low considering that the presumed remaining hostages remain in Hamas’s custody.