Day 286 of the Israel – Hamas war and it is not much left until it turns one year of fighting, suffering and absolute devastation. In all honesty, there are high chances that this war will go beyond that timestamp and that it will continue for some time. Hezbollah has managed to interdict life-as-usual in northern Israel by its many attacks and has turned tens of thousands of Israelis into IDPs.
The peace process is either going slowly and, at times, it halts to a full stop for diverse reasons. In the present case it does seem that there is some movement on this front, as Yoav Gallant, the Israeli Defense Minister, has recently stated that the conditions created in Gaza by the IDF have led to the possibility of negotiating a hostage deal, first and foremost, while the far-right part of the Netanyahu government, mainly Ben Gvir and Bezalel Smotrich, has urged him not to sign any deal with Hamas that would end the fighting before the terrorist faction is completely destroyed.
Peace talks have also likely resumed on the 17th of July after an Israeli delegation is said to have arrived in Egypt for this purpose. In the same day the Knesset has passed a resolution rejecting Palestinian statehood so as to exclude any mention of such a provision in any future possible peace deal between Israel and Hamas. This has sparked wide protests from different governments and officials and even a stated feeling of disappointment by the White House, which has doubled down that President Biden is supporting a two-state solution and that he will not be deterred by this news.
On the 15th of July, UNRWA reported that its headquarters in Gaza, in the Sabra neighborhood, western Gaza City, was completely destroyed from the fighting between the IDF and Hamas. Previously there were reports that the complex was being used by Hamas for staging operations and there are unconfirmed images of weapon caches in the buildings. The operation by the IDF took approximatively four days to execute and the Israeli army also reported a casualty from the Israeli side – a soldier involved in the rescue of residents from Nahal Oz on the 7th of October, also regarded as a national hero.
On the 13th, it is reported that Muhammad Deif, regarded as Sinwar’s second in command, was eliminated by an Israeli strike in Al Mawasi, west of Khan Younis, along with what is reported to be numerous other Hamas fighters, but also civilians. The situation is turning complicated for the terrorist faction and its willingness to drop some of the provisions in the ceasefire negotiations that were previously regarded as unacceptable by the Israeli part might suggest, as many involved actors are also believing, that they are indeed suffering heavy blows in Gaza, which in turn are making the release of hostages more likely.
According to the UN, up to 1.9 million people in the Gaza Strip are considered to be IDPs, while the World Food Programme is reporting that 96 percent of the population is facing acute food security, while close to half of them are reported to be in catastrophic condition.
In a more worrying development, evidence of polio has been found in the sewages of Gaza, which means that disease might be rampant in the small patch of land, a fact already known for months.
From all that we can gather, it seems that the war will indeed continue even if a temporary ceasefire is reached, with the release of hostages included. This does not address the recurring problem which is the constant resurfacing of clashes and war between Israel and the factions that activate in the Gaza Strip and West Bank – as long as the root problem is not addressed, civilians will continue to be caught in the crossfire between the warring factions and needless suffering will continue to take its toll.