As the buildup of military forces continues in northern Israel, fears of a vertical escalation are even more present. This comes in parallel with the continued airstrikes that the IDF has managed to inflict on Hezbollah forces throughout Lebanon, practically eliminating most of the top-tier officers and leadership of the terrorist group. Most of the military chain of command has been eliminated and as of the 24th of September, 558 other Hezbollah senior figures had been also taken out of action, according to Israeli sources.
The retaliatory actions committed by Hezbollah were preceded in the same fashion as before, by using rocket launches upon northern kibbutz, which managed to cause some damages and some injured but far from a real response for the crippling blows it has been dealt in the past two weeks. The only exception was encountered when on the 25th of September, missiles were launched towards Tel Aviv, with none reaching their target, having been intercepted by air defense systems.
According to Israeli sources, the ground operation against Hezbollah is being prepared as we speak and, although it is hard to tell at this current time when or if something of the sorts is indeed coming, the least we can expect is that this action is being used as the mythical Damocles’ sword over the head of the organization, as a constant warning and a show of strength.
As the usual rule of thumb, we cannot predict as to how Nasrallah will react to all these blows, nor to the positioning of Israeli troops close to the Lebanese border. Weather we will witness retaliatory actions in the short term, or at a much later time, when the strategic context permits such actions, remains to be seen.
The air operations done by the IDF have also caused injuries and casualties, with the airstrikes committed on Monday, the 23rd of September, registering 490 casualties and more than 1600 injured, according to the Lebanese Ministry of Health. The expansion of the war in Gaza has, as we have previously predicted, happened. Although it is an incipient phase of it and it does not guarantee (yet) a military invasion into Lebanon which would increase the woes of the Middle East, it is unfortunately a telling sign that civilians will continue to suffer, caught in the crossfire of warring sides.
It was indeed hard to believe that Israel will continue to suffer daily rocket and missile strikes onto its territory which have already rendered the north part of the country not safe to inhabit, which has also caused internal displacement. The United Nations has estimated that 90.000 Lebanese have also been displaced as an effect.
In the entire quagmire that is this new Gaza war, we have also not seen, as of yet, the response from another important and dangerous actor – Iran. It is also true that the IDF has caused much damage to the IRGC operations in Syria, Lebanon and other surrounding parts and we can cautiously suppose that, at this moment in time, it is either not capable of responding to the proactive measures that Israel is taking, or is also searching for better context and other preparations.