After a new visit in Israel by Anthony Blinken, the US Secretary of State, on August 19, the Israeli Prime minister vowed to abide by the new hostage deal between Hamas and Israel, which was proposed by the US at the end of the week before in Doha.

Although many formulas have been presented before, there is, again, not much reason to believe there is a high chance for a real hostage exchange that would turn into a ceasefire. Fighting takes place regularly between the forces, both in Gaza and the West Bank, with casualties, with the IDF being a standing army that uses various military tactics and, on the other side, Hamas using guerilla warfare tactics with integrated technologies, such as using suicide drones or munition carrying ones.

These new ways of conducting warfare have been closely observed by the whole world in the Russian invasion of Ukraine and have been largely adopted everywhere else where conflict is present.

Hamas has rejected the Doha deal on the 18th of August. It comes at no surprise, even though the terrorist faction is suffering considerable casualties among its fighters and this is precisely the reason why they did it – it does not wish to be perceived as weak, nor does it want to sign off on a deal in a moment where it finds itself in a considerable strategic disadvantage. In this particular case, there is little reason to believe that Hamas would regain balance in the foreseeable future, neither strategically, nor tactically. Many, including Mr. Blinken, call the latest proposal as the last chance for such a thing and we can safely assume that this will be the case.

There are many reasons why one should believe so – on the 18th of August a bomb set off accidentally, carried in a backpack by a later claimed and confirmed Hamas/Islamic Jihad fighter in Tel Aviv. Luckily there were no registered casualties reported, other than the carrier himself, and a moderately wounded passer-by. This kind of terrorist attack would never help any kind of ceasefire talks, especially after Hamas has vowed to carry further such attacks.

Another example as to why a deal right now, or in the future, is less likely to take place is that on the 19th of August, the IDF had destroyed a kilometer and a half long underground tunnel in Khan Younis – these kinds of actions have two consequences: they give the impression that Hamas is running out of options and hiding places in the small strip of land, it further limits their movement and, of course, their freedom of action, it eliminates the element of surprise and they give the IDF a lot of deeds and actions on which they can build up on, to further report success which, in turn, makes political will for the end of this conflict low enough for the Israeli side not to accept any compromise at the moment. And, as time passes, this will further build up the confidence for achieving the stated war goals of Israel – the rescue of hostages and the destruction of Hamas.

For the first part, at the moment, there is little reason to believe that Israel might rescue all the hostages alive without a negotiated solution so, for this motive, we cannot expect much on this part.

The humanitarian situation in the Gaza Strip is dire, with multiple issues encountered for many basic needs. In terms of water, both the access to it and its quality, are in a critical situation according to Sam Rose, the director for planning of UNRWA.

In any case, the many (civilians) suffer for the few.